potrošniški vzorec

Big swings in SA’s spending patterns

By Adele Shevel

Massive swings in the spending and savings patterns of South Africans have been recorded in new data released by the Reserve Bank and independent researchers.

Blacks now account for 46.5% of personal disposable income — compared to 40.4% for whites — and this percentage is set to climb in the next five years.

This is according to the Intelligence Unit of The Economist magazine, the findings of which are quoted in a new report by the SA Advertising Research Foundation.

More than half of all South Africans now use a cellphone, up from 41% two years ago. The number of people using the Internet has increased 11% over the same period.

The bad news for Telkom is that fewer people are using traditional land-line telephones.

Other highlights of the research are that:

More people are eating at fast-food outlets, have a home security system, have read a book in the past month and have dined out at a restaurant in the past month.

There’s been an increase in do-it-yourself activities, gambling at the casino and going to a gym or health club.

The most significant statistical increase is in the number of people who have been victims of violent and non-violent crime — up by 20% from a year ago.

Sales of DVDs have risen significantly, while those of videos have fallen. The number of people who own digital cameras has also jumped.

More people have TVs, fridges, electric stoves, electric hotplates and microwave ovens.

The greater consumption reflects changes in earnings. The average household income in 1994 was R2435; today this stands at R5319. While there are fewer people in the lower “living standards measure” (LSM) brackets, the numbers in middle to upper LSMs have burgeoned, confirming the continued growth of the black middle class.

The average household income for LSM 5 to 7 has grown 11% among the black population this year compared to last year.

All media usage has increased, apart from cinema. Price cuts by major cinema groups appear to have had no impact on movie attendance.

More people are reading — along with a rise in levels of education and more people finishing matric. Over the past two years there has been a significant increase in functional literacy and matric completion among the black population.

This has had the effect of people reading more publications. The average number of newspapers read per reader is 2.41 in 2007, up from 2.25 in 2006. Magazine readership is up from 3.91 to 4.12.

More homes are powered up: 86% of houses have electricity compared with 64.7% in 1996.

As for what triggers male interest on the sports front, it is soccer, followed by cricket, then boxing and wrestling. Yet almost half of those surveyed do not take part in any sport. Those who do, play soccer, pool or snooker.

Sports wise, women are most interested in soccer, while the category of “no interest” comes up second, followed by dancing. Most women do not participate in sport, and those who do either walk or hike, play basketball or netball, or dance.

The number of people who have bought durable items like fridges and stoves on credit has dropped 5% since a year ago.

All this increased usage is in line with statistics from the Reserve Bank, which said the ratio of net wealth relative to disposable income rose strongly from the low recorded in 2002 to 298% in 2006 and further to 317% in the first half of this year.

This strong increase in the net wealth ratio reflected primarily the substantial growth in the market value of residential buildings and investment in equities.

Kevin Lings, an economist at Stanlib, said the increase in the household debt-to-income ratio over the past three decades can largely be attributed to three factors: the financial deregulation from the beginning of the 1980s; the reduction of interest rates and the rise in wealth-to-income ratios.

Lings said that, in contrast to the increase in net wealth, households’ net savings turned negative in 2006 for the first time ever. Last year consumer debt exceeded consumer income for the first time in South Africa.

“Fortunately the value of households’ assets (houses and equities) have been rising faster than the increase in debt, which reflects as a rise in net wealth.

“The risk would be a sharp rise in interest rates and/or a sharp decline in property and equity prices. Currently, the consumer does not appear to be in distress and is coping with the elevated level of debt; at least for the moment.”

Sunday Times
Sunday, September 30, 2007 11:33:00 AM